Winners and Losers in the Clean Energy Shakeup: What OBBBA Means for U.S. Biofuels, Hydrogen & Beyond

The Clean Energy Shakeup Has Arrived

The U.S. Congress has officially passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)—a major realignment of clean energy tax incentives. While the Inflation Reduction Act opened the floodgates, OBBBA narrows the field. Some sectors got stronger. Others hit a wall.

At LEC Partners, we’ve been advising developers and investors across biofuels, hydrogen, and renewable infrastructure. Here’s our breakdown of the three biggest winners and losers in the new U.S. policy landscape.

✅ Winner #1: Ethanol Producers

The 45Z credit for clean fuel production has been extended through 2029, and indirect land-use change penalties for corn ethanol have been eliminated.

What this means:

• Higher per-gallon incentives for U.S.-grown feedstocks.

• No competition from imported fuels starting in 2026.

• Improved credit stacking when paired with carbon capture (45Q).

“Ethanol is back in the spotlight—and low-CI upgrades now come with real upside.”

✅ Winner #2: Manure-to-RNG Projects

Animal manure-based RNG is the only pathway still eligible for above-$1/gal credits under 45Z, thanks to a carve-out for negative emissions fuels.

Why it matters:

• Strong alignment with LCFS and RFS credits.

• Timeline extended to 2029.

• LEC clients are already modeling these projects with IRRs well above the industry average.

✅ Winner #3: Electrolytic Hydrogen Developers

Hydrogen projects retain the $3/kg credit—but only if they begin construction by 2027.

Opportunities:

• Exempt from foreign entity restrictions (FEOC).

• Eligible for credit transfer or monetization.

• Ideal for developers with near-term shovel-ready capacity.

❌ Loser #1: EV Manufacturers and Charging Infrastructure

The repeal of credits 30D, 45W, and 30C hits the EV value chain hard.

Impact:

• Reduced demand for EVs and commercial fleets.

• ChargePoint, Tesla, and Hertz all affected.

• State and local climate plans face new gaps.

❌ Loser #2: Wind and Solar Developers

Clean electricity credits are now tied to strict start-and-complete deadlines and new foreign content rules.

Implications:

• Projects must begin by 2026 and be online by 2028.

• Supply chain audits are required to avoid FEOC penalties.

• Many developers face capital risk due to new complexity.

❌ Loser #3: SAF from Ethanol Feedstock

The $0.75 SAF bonus is eliminated after 2025, and stacking 45Z credits across ethanol and SAF may not be allowed.

Result:

• SAF projects relying on ethanol as a feedstock face economic headwinds.

• Without offtake support or new policy adjustments, long-term SAF deployment may stall.

Bottom Line

OBBBA compresses timelines and raises the bar—but for ethanol, RNG, and hydrogen, it still pays to move fast.

At LEC Partners, we guide developers and investors through the complexity. From LCAs and TEAs to FEOC compliance and credit modeling, we make sure your projects are eligible, investable, and executable.

📩 Let’s talk about how your project can win under OBBBA.